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http://www.post-science.com; email: inf@post-sciecne.com
Executive Summary: Important
One-Page Reading For All Stock Investors
The price of a stock can
fluctuate up and down almost without limitation, but the rate of
return of the same stock, as shown by the recently patented
Infinite Spreadsheet Stock Valuation System (Pat. No. 6,078,901),
is inevitably confined to a range usually between 10% and 30%. The
Infinite Spreadsheet establishes a mathematically rigorous
relationship between the price and all the factors affecting the
price in a time space extending to infinity. It is a mathematical
interpretation of the price in terms of all the factors affecting
the price, including, in particular, the rate of return. Having
taken consideration to infinity and being all-inclusive, it has
captured the reality, in this case, the stock market, in its
entirety. The Infinite Spreadsheet is the first and the only
financial analysis method to provide full disclosure and full
accountability of future investment expectations. The Infinite
Spreadsheet can calculate the rate of return of a stock with the
given market quote after around 10,000 iterations and in about ten
seconds. The calculation is completely realistic and based on
dividend, which for most growth companies might only in 15 years
from now. It is also possibly one of the easiest investment
analysis methods to use, for it is completely automated and
usually needs just five readily obtainable inputs (from web sites,
such as Yahoo Stock Finance/Quotes) for each calculation, as given
below (the other 50+ inputs are generally the same and
standardized):
1. What is the First Year Earning Per Share ? $__________
2. What is the Next Year Earning Per Share ? _____%
3. What is the % Growth Rate For The Next Five Years ? _____%
4. What is the Dividend Per Share ? $__________
5. What is the Stock Quote (Price) ? $__________
In practice, however, the stock
market is full of imperfections. Although the Infinite Spreadsheet
can capture the entire market in its infinite net mainly by
constraining the rate of return within the inescapable range of
from 5% to 100% (very few stocks are above 30% or below 10%), it
is itself caught between the not-yet-rational investors, who
determine the stock price or quote, and the somewhat irresponsible
analysts, who provide the earning estimates. The Infinite
Spreadsheet merely relates in a mathematically rigorous fashion
the price to the earnings. Thus, only when the earning estimate is
correct, the prediction of over and under-valuation by the
Infinite Spreadsheet becomes infallible. The market imperfection
is due mainly to the use of finite spreadsheet, such as finite
cash flow analysis (appreciation of the resale price). The
incorrect methods of investment analysis can cause the
appreciation of a stock price or earning to feedback on the
appreciation itself resulting in an appreciation instability.
Taking market imperfection in to consideration, an investor should
buy an undervalued, low-risk (with high market cap), stock whose
price is rising, not falling. In conclusion, an infallible process
of stock investment involves the following two steps:
(1) Use the Infinite Spreadsheet to track under-valued stocks,
which have their rates of returns above 30% +/- 5%, depending on
their risks, and have their price movements flat or downward,
(2) Buy the stocks when the price movements start to execute the
appreciation instability and have turned from downward to flat and
then to upward by about 10% from the lowest price, and sell the
stocks when the rates of return drop below 20%+/-5% or whenever
they move down by more than 5%; the undervalued stock is capture
above 30% return and what goes up must come down.
When the Infinite Spreadsheet is popularly used, it will solve the
problem of over-valuation by confining the rates of return of all
the stocks to within a narrow range, say, between 10% to 20%. But,
before then, its users can still have a last chance to accumulate
some under-valued stocks.
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